TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,223
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,223 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6c4…86a9backed No34c446.23$152 inLost-$151.622347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No30c278.34$83 inLost-$83.53215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd383…c77abacked Yes79c266.94$210 inWon+$56.942450%12 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes69c200$138 inWon+$623461.8%21 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+62.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes58c190$111 inWon+$7915523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes72c67.48$49 inWon+$18.8949023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes74c67.24$50 inWon+$17.519445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No18c64.51$12 inLost-$11.611942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No19c61.73$12 inLost-$11.7313360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x815f…aed7backed Yes77c51.79$40 inWon+$11.79955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes80c41.83$33 inWon+$8.551457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc2…ac7dbacked No25c40$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-60.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes72c40$29 inWon+$11.21978.9%15 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick63cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes71c39.9$28 inWon+$11.586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258e…a42dbacked Yes80c37.53$30 inWon+$7.53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd412…286cbacked Yes72c34.72$25 inWon+$9.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No36c28.96$10 inLost-$10.4521751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes72c27.38$20 inWon+$7.7140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes75c20$15 inWon+$513942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes72c20$14 inWon+$5.62250%11 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+78.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.