Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dfa7a9909ebac4fc37ff8702495ca1a75c4e6cb1a2ffca15331ff07db84791e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 38c | 832.3$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.87 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 73c | 719.17$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 60c | 594.39$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.76 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 36c | 202.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d97…77a9backed No | 65c | 152.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 67c | 149.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 137.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 78c | 137$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 72c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 121.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 71c | 119.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 42c | 118.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…3ff0backed Yes | 44c | 114.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 39c | 102.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 56c | 99.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 54c | 94.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 59c | 89.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…411cbacked Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 61c | 72.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba14…318abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 58c | 56.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 58c | 54.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d4…1e74backed Yes | 37c | 53.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44b…79ffbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…f663backed Yes | 39c | 51.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…bfdcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9c…d654backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 37.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb503…5624backed Yes | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…9bafbacked Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 34c | 33.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e1…b3c6backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…892cbacked No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…ad90backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x479d…4ecfbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…3234backed No | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…5e2dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 65c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.