Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ac86c84ef3e2d38dd0e27956977ca4e64e2ed766ffd10e5eafca21c410257f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 44c | 1,125$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.1 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 55c | 807.82$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.91 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 38c | 447.69$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 61c | 425$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed No | 57c | 241.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 71c | 180$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +177.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 55c | 170.59$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 49c | 152$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 143.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 37c | 123.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked No | 27c | 120$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 117.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5e…23d8backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 68c | 95.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 59c | 85.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…6842backed No | 36c | 83.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 50c | 70.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 44c | 69.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 32c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed Yes | 69c | 58.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Yes | 51c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed No | 40c | 55.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 40c | 54.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…a72bbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135b…24f8backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…e235backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…1e4cbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…087fbacked No | 42c | 23.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…fdd3backed Yes | 68c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 14.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" or "Autopen" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Department of War" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 10+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Genocide" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Hostage" 6+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Houthi" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" or "Israeli" 20+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 2+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "October 7th" 4+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Peace" or "Shalom" 5+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Qatar" or "Erdogan" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Skedaddle" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.