TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes26c999.96$260 inLost-$259.991128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c551$14 inLost-$14.271,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed No74c430.59$319 inWon+$111.951040%4 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-43.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4982…0a72backed No73c418.27$306 inWon+$112.261827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.8wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-57.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No72c316.41$226 inWon+$90.113738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No69c249.71$172 inWon+$77.43666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes29c225.12$65 inLost-$64.5249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes29c212.3$62 inLost-$61.642623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes30c201.66$60 inLost-$60.53732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes30c195.63$59 inLost-$58.6913942.4%59 W · 80 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes28c176.99$50 inLost-$49.563528.6%10 W · 25 L-6.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-48.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xf04f…bb1ebacked No71c150$107 inWon+$43.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes21c121.84$26 inLost-$25.7240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No66c67.39$44 inWon+$23.098530.6%26 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes35c42.86$15 inLost-$15862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed No74c36.49$27 inWon+$9.492462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+54.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb31f…8898backed No71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.171782.4%14 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+33.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c27.66$19 inWon+$8.2986542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed No74c22.99$17 inWon+$6.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+37.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x42c8…d093backed No79c18.99$15 inWon+$3.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.