TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0f61…1103

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$14.61
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.9
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$106.02
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.35
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.64
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$11.41
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$104.86
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$29.07
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.84
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+50.8%+$157.46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.31
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+156.4%+$79.75
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+177.5%+$117.21
US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+143.9%+$14.72
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.9%+$27.43
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$170.82
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$46.41
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$636.47
Will Trump say "Hottest" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$16.8
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$676Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+91.1%+$615.46
All 21 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.63
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+25%+$9.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+58.7%+$21.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$256.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$597.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,932Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,931.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.