Music · resolved market
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have 1.5 Million Likes on Friday at Noon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1847716c69b3010ce0d302d5db7b924b2704b706c56a863e87e3165f4481e65c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked No | 60c | 1,421$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 8c | 894.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03be…f6d9backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked Yes | 30c | 499.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 70c | 433$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 275.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 48c | 227.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…f98fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 22c | 191.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed No | 66c | 162.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 50c | 119.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e6…90dfbacked Yes | 12c | 110.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 48c | 94.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 49c | 83.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…a4acbacked No | 68c | 61.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes | 68c | 56.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9119…d179backed No | 69c | 54.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…7b95backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a7…6dd3backed No | 69c | 25.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.