TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed Yes11c8,482$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,532.714650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ba8…64ecbacked No1c7,116$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes28c3,881$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.54728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed No4c3,865$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad4c…4067backed Yes20c2,138$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+406.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No77c2,059$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.471118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed No3c1,930$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.19119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-86.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa47a…1db6backed No80c1,766$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,412.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…c6b0backed No70c1,755$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.19933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-14.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,645$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc250…8d6ebacked No80c1,532$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes32c1,344$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.374744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No41c1,316$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.6612440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No33c1,227$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-80.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes22c1,026$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.341947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b66…a2f3backed Yes12c1,000$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+149.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Yes21c999.28$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No67c845.64$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.421361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes66c800$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.24062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes23c800$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes28c707.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No55c690.47$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.664245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe709…9d39backed Yes8c636.42$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.442634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes22c635.28$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5769…14bcbacked No80c600$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d8d…ed86backed Yes32c580$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1002…17d7backed Yes19c517.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+158.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes20c500$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+146.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes24c500$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.55129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20c…e2bdbacked Yes16c500$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+41.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc3…081fbacked No76c500$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Yes33c409.62$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.45475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes68c406.53$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6931534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes18c400.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.532924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef5…a454backed Yes43c399.61$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes12c379.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.974153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes22c361.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.824141.5%17 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c343$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5316833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No73c310$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.35234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae2…8c70backed Yes22c260.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.06520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes42c245.08$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.467429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30dd…ffe1backed Yes18c240.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+170.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x935d…08ffbacked Yes36c239.08$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.95850%4 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+85.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes21c230.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.92585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes35c224.94$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.974825%12 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes26c213.82$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15933238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67aa…b88cbacked Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No75c194.68$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.578331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942b…e25ebacked Yes18c175.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.931241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes19c170.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.971241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71c9…cc4cbacked Yes35c141.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No70c138.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1634129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f59…f50ebacked No56c137.1$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes11c131.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.061070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+96.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes32c130$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.41233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+58.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a4…bdf5backed Yes15c129.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+204.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes33c126.13$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.042955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x756d…75e6backed Yes12c115.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+174.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9119…d179backed Yes12c115.42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+108.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x36f5…cd2ebacked No80c106$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.54366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes31c103.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.691428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes10c101.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.321216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+149.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked No50c100.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.233125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0067…6667backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+367.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x840f…41d2backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.71241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+86.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+98%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x087a…48c4backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a2b…c333backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…9cb3backed Yes24c99.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+109.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed Yes20c98.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9b…b6aabacked Yes26c96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+220.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No79c94.33$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.332152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c90.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5349711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes28c81.27$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.271838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes30c72.31$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.621266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1247…c139backed Yes21c70.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.44450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+73.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf237…1c3dbacked No72c69.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes22c68.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6434…72b6backed Yes19c66.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671080%8 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+81.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No77c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.645035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked No70c57.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445a…9465backed No72c56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.321450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0511…3069backed Yes18c55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+446.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No80c54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25044%22 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked No64c53.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.381258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8304…f086backed Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed No77c50$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-73.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.12757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2864…8527backed No78c44.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c4b…3f71backed No72c41.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No72c41.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.691172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+66.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No59c39.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc86b…1d72backed Yes32c37.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.