Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8fb166d74a1221f109aa4a261129dcaacf40b2fed4a8a28c7edae2985019152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 23c | 3,821$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111f…af00backed Yes | 21c | 2,518$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,508$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.87 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 1,400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,398$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.64 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,290$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ff…bb52backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…f7bdbacked Yes | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 20c | 827$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 24c | 622.88$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 555$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5879…10e8backed Yes | 22c | 451.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 16c | 436.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 30c | 407.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 251.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 23c | 250$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…9100backed Yes | 29c | 173.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 166.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 153.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 20c | 134.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 109.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…f3c7backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…75c1backed Yes | 17c | 60.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 19c | 53.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +138%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 19% and 22% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 22% and 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get more than 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.