Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 19% and 22% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x150c481bb4101c940f40dd65675857b58c00d0986cd5c12bf97625a91595c9e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 18c | 6,530$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.92 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 6c | 2,528$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 2,378$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,327$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,129$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 7c | 884.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 6c | 788$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 585.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 9c | 531.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 5c | 401.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…2422backed Yes | 13c | 374.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 350.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 78c | 315.6$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 12c | 281.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 7c | 250.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…f3c7backed Yes | 10c | 202$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…b1babacked Yes | 8c | 141.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…9100backed Yes | 19c | 133.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 125.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed Yes | 11c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 19% and 22% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?this page
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 10% and 13% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get between 22% and 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get less than 10% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Curtis Sliwa get more than 25% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.