TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9256…2e8bbacked No63c7,915$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.448161.7%50 W · 31 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes2c7,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503522.9%8 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+324.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes5c4,696$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.81921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaae2…021bbacked Yes67c4,143$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c0…be99backed No34c1,355$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.587262.5%45 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes67c1,120$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.2876137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes75c800$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a6…ffa5backed Yes7c680.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No29c635.87$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6726334.6%91 W · 172 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes69c624.4$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.864955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes68c561.67$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.827427%20 W · 54 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9379…2e25backed No28c491$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick51cpaid+133.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No30c429.76$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.5221820.2%44 W · 174 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f82…5716backed No29c407.74$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No25c401.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.773548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Yes74c396.67$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.491850%9 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4d7…3499backed Yes80c375.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No21c336.22$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.251526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ac…2d85backed Yes69c335$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.154245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f3…03fabacked No31c327.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+129.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf006…1b00backed Yes69c288.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes61c288$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.88048.8%39 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+22.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6267…3781backed Yes79c254.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes73c252.93$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863f…1d3ebacked No24c250.01$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90e…7e26backed Yes75c250$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8550%0 W · 5 L-2.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf78b…c5dcbacked Yes77c244.27$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249b…5df1backed No33c235.99$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.931625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No32c230$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.83447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c229.97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.9867442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0e3…37fabacked No28c216.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…ae08backed Yes67c213.1$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No27c211$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9220729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3313…8355backed Yes73c206.44$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed No34c203.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.998634.9%30 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes39c201.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5215530.3%47 W · 108 L-20.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked Yes80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes73c199.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9910272.5%74 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Yes64c199.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.992759.3%16 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdaa…6b2bbacked No24c197.07$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+323%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed Yes65c189.37$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.68541.2%35 W · 50 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x233a…0858backed Yes76c178.86$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f5…8718backed Yes28c164.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes65c163.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7715564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e3…30c4backed Yes73c161.33$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes65c160.29$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3811860.2%71 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718a…5d86backed Yes65c154$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.14774.5%35 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick74cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0a…9229backed Yes66c153.46$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6511566.1%76 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2433…b121backed Yes80c150$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes73c150$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.62864.3%18 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes67c149.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed Yes71c149.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes67c148.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61de…4779backed Yes80c146.51$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes74c140$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-55.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf57…053bbacked No35c140$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb102…c73dbacked No33c140$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.47731.2%24 W · 53 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked No35c137.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.181154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed Yes72c136.05$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.96650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c135.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.3929024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No27c134.7$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.533025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x959a…7478backed Yes75c133.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1544…6f27backed Yes78c130.26$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.13560%3 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick78cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes66c120.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3505…d372backed No20c117.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+393.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No34c115.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.968012.5%10 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-61.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes71c113$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.233429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes69c111.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick64cpaid-71.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe4c2…4fd0backed Yes71c108.28$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a69…228fbacked Yes66c107.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No22c105.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.342433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+100.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94f5…67d1backed Yes78c103.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf462…3a4dbacked No19c103.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.481233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+84.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8d6…180bbacked Yes80c102.7$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7924…b0fbbacked No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x747b…f422backed Yes78c100$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe701…942ebacked Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910760.7%65 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed No20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99f6…46eabacked Yes76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked Yes72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked No24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eee…2782backed Yes75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-45.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9df7…36cdbacked Yes76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761957.9%11 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick71cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes72c99.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.993327.3%9 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c93.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.157939%226 W · 353 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked No27c92.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.59944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Yes67c90$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.012842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bab…4f17backed No32c87.85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.3113235.6%47 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed No23c86.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.961428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes71c84.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010067%67 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6434…72b6backed No21c79.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x811d…371bbacked Yes73c78.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7d0…881ebacked No26c77.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+288.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce78…236abacked No27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.