NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf496ae8e714d62adb4c221c6bea2b1eb1c7ddce52ccc9c9e98a0690b089c080
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 53c | 24,000$12,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,720 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 10,426$4,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,454.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1070…03b6backed Under | 46c | 10,200$4,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,508 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e0…4659backed Under | 46c | 10,200$4,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,508 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…2729backed Over | 54c | 10,200$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…502abacked Over | 54c | 10,200$5,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,508 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 9,086$4,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,811.2 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 47c | 3,581$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.93 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,083$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.51 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 51c | 1,495$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.23 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Under | 47c | 1,249$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Under | 46c | 788.89$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…a81ebacked Over | 54c | 788.89$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Under | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.7 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed Over | 32c | 320$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Under | 52c | 256.16$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…08f8backed Over | 52c | 223.08$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 62c | 206.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Under | 47c | 146.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…eb8dbacked Over | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 53c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Over | 53c | 59.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Under | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…b6c9backed Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb222…8fe8backed Over | 55c | 39.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…77afbacked Under | 47c | 39.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Stars won
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)Senators won
- Stars vs. SenatorsStars won
- Stars vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.