Premier League · resolved market
Olympic Men's Soccer Final: Spain vs. France
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacf32921cd5fc0b0d786b8a18c9095d6aa9e5706c7b442fd433870cd72d793df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spainof Spain, France
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed France | 6c | 2,699$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Spain | 45c | 1,936$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.65 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a694backed France | 59c | 1,532$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed France | 56c | 1,100$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.95 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Spain | 52c | 499.26$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39e…e7c7backed France | 61c | 493.39$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed France | 54c | 475.92$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.39 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Spain | 54c | 465.2$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.35 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Spain | 39c | 396.73$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1172…9b72backed France | 60c | 206.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…41dfbacked France | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff6…0dcbbacked Spain | 42c | 130.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked France | 60c | 125.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…9f23backed Spain | 41c | 124.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd547…64c4backed France | 56c | 114.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed Spain | 27c | 104.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…c016backed Spain | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Spain | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Spain | 40c | 81.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Spain | 43c | 74.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Spain | 72c | 73.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…243fbacked Spain | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Spain | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Spain | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed France | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…7a04backed Spain | 43c | 26.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.