TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Eagles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eaglesof Lions, Eagles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,422,585
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,677,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,422,585 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 930 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Lions32c376,367$121,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,710.6130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Lions43c374,565$161,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,062.922050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Eagles58c267,350$153,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,494.0317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Lions43c105,761$45,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,425.4113843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Lions42c100,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,0001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Eagles56c95,000$53,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,35020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…991bbacked Lions26c93,376$24,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,020.0690%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Eagles69c88,835$60,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,909.0710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d4d…e63dbacked Lions37c78,356$28,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,727.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Eagles57c78,081$44,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,695.0411649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Lions33c76,257$25,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,217.7210026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Eagles57c70,000$39,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,099.957554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Lions44c62,422$27,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,397.3316836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Eagles58c62,113$36,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,112.6518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Eagles57c61,566$34,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,611.1473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Eagles76c58,598$44,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,150.966245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Eagles59c53,125$31,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,644.678946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf915…388fbacked Eagles58c52,425$30,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,018.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Eagles56c50,000$28,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,0003135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Eagles59c40,967$24,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,920.778164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Eagles62c40,679$25,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,358.6675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Lions50c40,038$20,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,015.715236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Lions33c36,000$11,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,879.9719645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Eagles57c35,088$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,087.725650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Eagles57c34,193$19,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,702.994134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Lions43c34,000$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,60014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Eagles65c31,877$20,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,255.0311643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Lions43c31,000$13,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,329.8916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Eagles56c30,414$17,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,308.6212744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Lions43c30,399$12,977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,977.251233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Lions5c29,668$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.614147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Eagles57c29,609$16,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,785.2444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Eagles74c27,996$20,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,309.2623850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lions20c27,778$5,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,568.720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9146…5f30backed Eagles58c25,000$14,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,5052528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Eagles63c23,554$14,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,641.242369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Eagles72c23,047$16,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,395.359359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lions8c22,777$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9119235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Lions4c22,278$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.4768446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e11…82a9backed Lions44c20,475$9,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,009475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Eagles75c20,115$14,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,127.512245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lions42c18,604$7,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,813.6810333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Eagles58c17,241$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,241.381353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Eagles57c17,200$9,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,432.8424056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Lions43c17,012$7,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3154456.8%25 W · 19 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Eagles60c16,774$10,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,654.43748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Eagles61c16,609$10,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,492.548532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Eagles57c16,374$9,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,963.086965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lions3c16,247$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.1231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Lions43c15,928$6,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,848.917346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Eagles72c15,515$11,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,344.25472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Lions44c15,000$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,650922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Eagles56c13,826$7,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,033.4883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Lions7c13,764$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Eagles56c13,350$7,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8144940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lions41c13,249$5,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,492.4230743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lions43c12,485$5,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,352.227248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Eagles69c11,961$8,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.0617647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Eagles70c11,344$7,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,402.344671.7%33 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Lions42c11,124$4,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,672.0847348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Eagles56c10,992$6,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,836.614757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d47…d0a2backed Eagles57c10,977$6,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.191283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+53.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Eagles56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Lions44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Lions36c9,834$3,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.0718044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Lions41c9,833$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,064.8524351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9105…97f2backed Lions43c9,802$4,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2151346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Lions43c9,625$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,138.936338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Lions12c9,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lions41c8,607$3,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,509.3460049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Lions28c8,333$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.974628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Eagles58c8,060$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.3414252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Eagles57c8,000$4,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Eagles60c7,997$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,163.8531848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Lions43c7,965$3,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.148856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lions23c7,818$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Eagles60c7,716$4,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,051.043432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Lions2c7,531$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.351486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Eagles58c7,470$4,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,126.2522349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Lions45c7,407$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3332347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Eagles69c7,262$5,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.6431056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Eagles57c7,015$4,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Lions44c7,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,080944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Lions45c7,000$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,169.9723447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Lions37c6,825$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5007147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Lions44c6,775$2,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,972.211252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Eagles60c6,621$3,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.7931854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Eagles59c6,391$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.6827644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Eagles57c6,363$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.9510144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lions42c5,968$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.6286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…dd1dbacked Lions43c5,930$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5501926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-46.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Lions43c5,814$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Eagles62c5,659$3,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.1827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Eagles58c5,629$3,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.315261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lions42c5,500$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81a6…9c48backed Lions5c5,414$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Eagles65c5,385$3,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.794062.5%25 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed Lions7c5,031$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.71338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76e…225bbacked Eagles54c5,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x824d…a040backed Lions23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.