NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd200d5d53dbbc47f4c39fb4ea790116297ed92455acfbeef4f4e09185be213cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 51,967$24,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,004.69 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Under | 54c | 43,200$23,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,871.99 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 17,506$9,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,102.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 3,759$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.85 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…a040backed Over | 46c | 3,400$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 3,078$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388.38 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 2,726$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.28 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 47c | 2,676$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.06 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 46c | 2,362$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.52 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 46c | 1,456$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.72 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Over | 47c | 845.74$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 56c | 307.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.16 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…e6fdbacked Over | 43c | 225.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Under | 55c | 154.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 46c | 51.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 53c | 37.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Under | 55c | 31.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…3428backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5this page
- Lions vs. EaglesEagles won
- Lions vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Lions vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 48.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Eagles won
- Star Power Parlay - St. Brown 50+ receiving yards, Hurts 25+ rushing yards, Total 41+ pointsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.