NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b43ada77f5c97d5a7c1215f1ae1e3a2263e76c6ab210a0c7ffba826bafe955b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 7,391$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,621.41 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Over | 49c | 3,705$1,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,815.69 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 3,642$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 2,746$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.53 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 49c | 2,352$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.55 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 2,227$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.5 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…bb41backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…bd9bbacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 903.84$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.88 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 834$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.66 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 50c | 724.01$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.01 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 49c | 700$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.5 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 594.72$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.25 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Under | 52c | 529.6$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.21 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 49c | 295$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 48c | 152.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 47c | 94.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked Over | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa55…4b00backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Under | 51c | 78.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 50c | 66.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…09a3backed Over | 49c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6baebacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 47c | 22.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5this page
- Lions vs. EaglesEagles won
- Lions vs. Eagles: 1H MoneylineEagles won
- Lions vs. Eagles: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 48.5Under won
- Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Eagles (-1.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)Eagles won
- Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Eagles won
- Star Power Parlay - St. Brown 50+ receiving yards, Hurts 25+ rushing yards, Total 41+ pointsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.