TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Eagles: O/U 46.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,596
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,596 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under51c7,391$3,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.4186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Over49c3,705$1,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,815.698856.8%50 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c3,642$1,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,82151352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under51c2,746$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.5324957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3505…f7a3backed Over49c2,352$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.558461.9%52 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over48c2,227$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.583447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5a9…bb41backed Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Over49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f3…bd9bbacked Over49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under51c903.84$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over49c834$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.6614366.4%95 W · 48 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79fb…b4aebacked Over50c724.01$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.018950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over49c700$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.511946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c594.72$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.251,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Under52c529.6$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.2114248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Over50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Over52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25019361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabf4…d167backed Over49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-47.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.6211156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over49c295$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.559443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over49c244.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12028047.5%133 W · 147 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Over48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9631540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Over48c152.15$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0313339.8%53 W · 80 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Over50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7555…ce17backed Over49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4e…18debacked Under53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4711752.1%61 W · 56 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011458.8%67 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under47c94.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5053253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Over48c85$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.81850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa55…4b00backed Over50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-49.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a26…8acbbacked Under51c78.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.078631.4%27 W · 59 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Over50c66.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3312148.8%59 W · 62 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under52c57.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.693345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Over50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db3…09a3backed Over49c41.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.23537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.656852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…fbfabacked Under56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.63860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6baebacked Under51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under48c28.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6139447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Over47c22.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.388653.5%46 W · 40 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.