TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Musettiof Musetti, Minaur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,270,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,304,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 642 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f09…4632backed Musetti31c76,495$23,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,878.085950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Minaur71c72,178$51,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,520.25064%32 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Musetti34c69,399$23,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,602.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Musetti29c60,000$17,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,899.8122037.7%83 W · 137 L+1.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Minaur58c39,109$22,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,846.8310845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Minaur69c38,869$26,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,798.994843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Minaur70c35,895$25,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,161.662259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Musetti32c33,989$10,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,112.362152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Minaur62c33,409$20,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,717.3924544.9%110 W · 135 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Musetti30c26,904$7,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,915.423452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17c1…a606backed Minaur71c25,700$18,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,189.994557.8%26 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed Musetti29c24,011$6,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,148.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+249.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Minaur70c22,026$15,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,374.044930.6%15 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Musetti19c21,534$4,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,400.536530.8%20 W · 45 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Musetti30c15,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,50067249.6%333 W · 339 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11be…cbabbacked Minaur70c14,035$9,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,824.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44e…c2c6backed Musetti29c14,034$4,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,964.061758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Musetti29c12,502$3,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,876.666549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Minaur70c10,127$7,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,059.991,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Musetti29c10,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,10017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Minaur72c10,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Minaur68c9,953$6,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.056,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x516e…100cbacked Minaur72c9,800$7,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,05620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb933…18d5backed Musetti28c9,500$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8401100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x743d…cde3backed Minaur72c9,500$6,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,84010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Minaur58c8,698$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,023.3316644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed72…b8b0backed Musetti29c7,951$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,645.167332.9%24 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Musetti37c7,949$2,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,039.428124.7%20 W · 61 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Minaur69c7,181$4,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.0276140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Minaur44c6,689$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9505339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Musetti35c6,682$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,336.5111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Musetti66c6,671$4,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.652770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37a3…fe17backed Musetti42c6,616$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+140.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed Minaur70c6,553$4,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.251435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Minaur1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60755.3%4 W · 71 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Musetti34c6,000$2,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,953.86747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Musetti25c5,377$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,022.5710443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72e0…9fc1backed Minaur56c5,082$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8383046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Minaur51c5,063$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.7520653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Musetti29c5,000$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5508530.6%26 W · 59 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Minaur71c5,000$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.9764855.2%358 W · 290 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Minaur55c4,876$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.242,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf4…20b3backed Minaur49c4,620$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.115151%26 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd1…4ea6backed Musetti25c4,617$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,466.681225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Minaur66c4,576$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,019.83520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-70.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x92f1…9b81backed Musetti25c4,524$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,374.783336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Minaur2c4,444$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.968313.3%11 W · 72 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Minaur65c4,433$2,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.693917.9%7 W · 32 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Minaur63c4,405$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.171,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b67…a36ebacked Musetti29c4,400$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minaur62c4,196$2,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,593.6465647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Musetti52c4,115$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.247,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Musetti28c4,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8808231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Minaur72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8806241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Minaur63c3,912$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.3728139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Musetti29c3,845$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.061,02933.5%345 W · 684 L-3.7wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Minaur46c3,768$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.0711852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Minaur71c3,451$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4505151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Minaur38c3,420$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.5419835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Musetti31c3,333$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+63.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Musetti45c3,169$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.0275547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Minaur72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16045457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Minaur36c2,987$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti29c2,955$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,097.771,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Minaur69c2,920$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014549%71 W · 74 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Minaur67c2,843$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.046046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Musetti38c2,644$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.9728443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Musetti29c2,600$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,855.988640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Musetti26c2,400$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,77322641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Minaur71c2,400$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7046254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Musetti8c2,342$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.611936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+36.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Musetti36c2,320$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.339264.1%59 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b8…1876backed Minaur72c2,300$1,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5aa…a24bbacked Musetti36c2,299$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,471.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Musetti28c2,154$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.881560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d80…07d4backed Minaur63c2,126$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.378065%52 W · 28 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed Minaur72c2,055$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8271…8542backed Minaur54c2,023$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x062e…9747backed Minaur69c2,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3801172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8156…27c2backed Minaur40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+44.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Musetti29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4203537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Musetti29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.96785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick41cpaid+98.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a2…9874backed Musetti29c1,947$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.5412627.8%35 W · 91 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Minaur59c1,937$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.463737.8%14 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Musetti23c1,841$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.5488446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Minaur72c1,740$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24910654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Minaur71c1,738$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,233.7811037.3%41 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed Minaur39c1,690$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.887335.6%26 W · 47 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Musetti16c1,644$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.53265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d81…5d42backed Musetti31c1,613$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.9119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-70.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Musetti30c1,575$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.151747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67c…2f87backed Musetti37c1,563$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d0…91acbacked Musetti29c1,540$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.8910261.8%63 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7df…27cdbacked Minaur69c1,500$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Musetti34c1,472$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.072065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Minaur24c1,468$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed Musetti14c1,435$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+261.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Minaur56c1,433$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.689452.1%49 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Musetti22c1,402$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Musetti29c1,400$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99444125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.