Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0621593e4638fed9d30294bbc309c119202b90713cd1d9628280637ebad7c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Minaur | 33c | 7,794$2,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.08 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Minaur | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 5.3%4 W · 71 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur | 0c | 5,593$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Minaur | 2c | 4,666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 83 | 13.3%11 W · 72 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Musetti | 73c | 942$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.08 | 497 | 52.3%260 W · 237 L | +28.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musetti | 30c | 834$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.68 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Minaur | 6c | 833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Musetti | 74c | 750$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Musetti | 58c | 691.12$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.12 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…a1fdbacked Musetti | 32c | 461.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Minaur | 57c | 239$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…c629backed Musetti | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe546…9e59backed Minaur | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…f967backed Musetti | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Minaur | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Musetti vs Minaurthis page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de MinaurMusetti won
- Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Total Sets: O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.