NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6177ab2acdda40ce9dc5f3d6c07829ed65ce87377a7b57a38217c0f16220327c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd82f…2088backed Grizzlies | 50c | 10,300$5,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,129.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…5e06backed Celtics | 51c | 10,200$5,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,048 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Grizzlies | 47c | 5,984$2,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.48 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 52c | 5,165$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Grizzlies | 50c | 3,818$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.81 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 48c | 1,317$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Celtics | 52c | 1,011$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.52 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Celtics | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Celtics | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Celtics | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Celtics | 51c | 972.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.77 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Grizzlies | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…0ad3backed Grizzlies | 50c | 480$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…72d4backed Celtics | 51c | 479$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 65c | 455$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 329.15$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 47c | 287.38$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Grizzlies | 49c | 249.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1b…7b0ebacked Celtics | 51c | 215.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c2…2b13backed Grizzlies | 50c | 215.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…a633backed Grizzlies | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Celtics | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…daa2backed Celtics | 51c | 195.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Celtics | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Celtics | 61c | 165.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Grizzlies | 50c | 159.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…f23dbacked Celtics | 51c | 139.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512a…3f7bbacked Celtics | 52c | 135.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Celtics | 57c | 128.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa652…ff5abacked Celtics | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Celtics | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…cea0backed Celtics | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Celtics | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Celtics | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Celtics | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies | 38c | 81.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…36c1backed Celtics | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Celtics | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…b9f8backed Celtics | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Celtics | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 41c | 61.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Grizzlies | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Grizzlies | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Celtics | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Celtics | 53c | 45.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Celtics | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Celtics | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…26a8backed Celtics | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…9bd5backed Celtics | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Celtics | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Celtics | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Celtics | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Grizzlies | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4697…8b6ebacked Celtics | 51c | 27.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a66…9806backed Grizzlies | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Celtics | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Celtics | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4476backed Celtics | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)this page
- Grizzlies vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.