NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0584c6d83293c8313824d75c2550e717f5c714f624b131ed940f5069bc8d1fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Over | 50c | 6,294$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.19 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 51c | 5,500$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,695 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,563$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 56c | 3,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,465$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.39 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…0788backed Under | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…bc25backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 1,104$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.96 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Under | 51c | 726$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 616$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.84 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 401$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…5a74backed Over | 51c | 323.53$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2381…ea41backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…1433backed Over | 50c | 21.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5this page
- Grizzlies vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.