NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-16.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d521facf62911fa77e5160e71f617cbe72a28b0eeb944948a9fa30ceb991828

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Wizards
Resolved: Nov 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $57,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Wizards	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,500	382	48.7%186 W · 196 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Rockets	50c	14,115$7,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,074	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ad4…3c1abacked Wizards	49c	9,999$4,899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,899.41	77	48.1%37 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Rockets	53c	7,571$4,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,570.26	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Wizards	49c	6,701$3,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,283.61	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Rockets	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,450	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Rockets	50c	2,150$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,068.86	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Wizards	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	475	42.3%201 W · 274 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Rockets	51c	1,323$674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$648.03	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Wizards	51c	1,182$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.66	173	31.8%55 W · 118 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Wizards	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Rockets	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	124	52.4%65 W · 59 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rockets	49c	957.18$469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.16	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef87…7231backed Rockets	53c	943.4$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.4	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets	50c	825$413 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.5	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets	51c	699.97$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.99	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3f…bb7cbacked Rockets	51c	585.43$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.43	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Wizards	48c	570.51$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.84	243	30.9%75 W · 168 L	-11.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards	47c	407$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.29	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Wizards	47c	331.99$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.68	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards	47c	317.69$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.31	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Rockets	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	1,048	41.1%431 W · 617 L	+23.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Rockets	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	50	62%31 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Rockets	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3504…e042backed Wizards	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	44.1%30 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Rockets	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	180	47.2%85 W · 95 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d4…daa2backed Rockets	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3af…8ac9backed Rockets	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…9601backed Rockets	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	163	46.6%76 W · 87 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Rockets	76c	186.97$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.62	158	38.6%61 W · 97 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3dd…45d3backed Rockets	53c	186.4$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.61	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards	48c	141.48$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.23	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b6…b02ebacked Wizards	49c	122.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	223	42.2%94 W · 129 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8229…f97ebacked Rockets	51c	119.61$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.61	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4be2…f23dbacked Rockets	51c	103.33$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.63	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5680…9305backed Wizards	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5248…aa1abacked Rockets	51c	101.96$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.96	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ae…5fdebacked Rockets	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa652…ff5abacked Rockets	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1321…2286backed Rockets	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2921…78b3backed Rockets	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x833c…24f4backed Rockets	51c	97.66$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.66	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48f8…9166backed Rockets	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	171	45.6%78 W · 93 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Rockets	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f7…3ea6backed Wizards	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e4…92bbbacked Wizards	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed Wizards	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58e…0893backed Rockets	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Rockets	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd9…00b1backed Rockets	50c	47$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.43	116	51.7%60 W · 56 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Wizards	37c	40.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	353	52.4%185 W · 168 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ee…5e08backed Wizards	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…56dbbacked Wizards	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	378	48.9%185 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf921…94dbbacked Rockets	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	-6.7wins	-0.10per pick	59cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a4f…c4f2backed Wizards	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	320	41.9%134 W · 186 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd22…9bd5backed Rockets	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets	47c	38.66$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.47	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb9…3864backed Rockets	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1de7…078dbacked Wizards	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Wizards	49c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Rockets	51c	30.39$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.89	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards	48c	27.85$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02d…c0bbbacked Wizards	50c	26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	115	49.6%57 W · 58 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Rockets	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Wizards	49c	24.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Wizards	49c	24.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084c…a811backed Rockets	51c	21.57$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	50	54%27 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	234	45.7%107 W · 127 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5470…f84ebacked Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Rockets (-16.5)this page
Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
Wizards vs. RocketsRockets won
Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Over won
Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Over won
Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Over won
Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-16.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event