NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4e0c42c79c76c51fb618656c5b74c68afe7a19ae15569dedde495f61515ffd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Wizards | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,099.99 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Rockets | 46c | 13,454$6,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,265.43 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Rockets | 47c | 8,947$4,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,697.27 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Wizards | 53c | 4,968$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.04 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Rockets | 49c | 4,125$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.69 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Wizards | 52c | 3,914$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.24 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 49c | 3,857$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Wizards | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 51c | 1,590$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.72 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 51c | 980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 52c | 814$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 52c | 722$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.44 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards | 46c | 568.37$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 46c | 542.53$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Wizards | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Wizards | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Wizards | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Rockets | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Wizards | 54c | 26.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81c8…97b8backed Wizards | 54c | 25.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Wizards | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)this page
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Wizards vs. RocketsRockets won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.