NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7efd0148537100a66b5a6cb1f6dcce69b0f19b3e016c9fcbb956d3c6c0516a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 49c | 13,411$6,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,523.08 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 12,784$6,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,175.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 5,249$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.39 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 49c | 3,216$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.8 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 2,982$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.99 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 940$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 939.9$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.15 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 51c | 605.5$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.7 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 76.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.41 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 56c | 66.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Under | 44c | 53.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Over | 52c | 45.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6d…a980backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -68%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 54c | 31.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 52c | 29.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc706…faedbacked Over | 52c | 27.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…2c0bbacked Over | 57c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 233.5this page
- Spread: Rockets (-16.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-17.5)Rockets won
- Wizards vs. RocketsRockets won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.