Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe154d7c9a9bd8033d5c1825cac94a7a4af65faed9e704b60d1198092d01a117d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 4,739$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.56 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 3,227$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.2 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,966$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.17 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,433$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.24 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,366$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 29c | 1,204$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.65 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 1,125$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.68 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 33c | 1,100$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 34c | 1,079$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 66c | 1,041$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.37 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…9164backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 67c | 944.63$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.71 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c03…70d1backed Yes | 34c | 731.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 33c | 612.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…43bfbacked Yes | 34c | 560$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 33c | 509$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 449.62$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 448.87$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 415.55$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.35 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 34c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 360.05$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 65c | 329.68$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 14c | 325.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 67c | 314.4$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 33c | 306.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.4wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 30c | 233.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…a20cbacked Yes | 5c | 205.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Yes | 35c | 200.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 65c | 173.58$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 80c | 136.9$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 33c | 133.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 71c | 102.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 22c | 90.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…0f2bbacked Yes | 31c | 87.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 78c | 87.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf448…64cabacked Yes | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 66c | 63.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 63.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 63.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…fe04backed Yes | 32c | 62.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 78c | 61.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…bea0backed Yes | 30c | 49.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Yes | 27c | 49.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…4cc1backed Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Yes | 32c | 45.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595f…9d4dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 45.5%61 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…9b3bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 40.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…4a34backed No | 78c | 38.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed Yes | 35c | 34.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Yes | 33c | 33.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd12e…27c2backed No | 70c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 69c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 162 | 51.2%83 W · 79 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-24?this page
- Will Hull City AFC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-02-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.