Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41df7e4654eab3c5db29ce94fd84dfb3ea11d1fa2c85220bf2f999a73582dca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 58c | 3,448$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 48c | 2,379$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.13 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 2,016$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.05 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 53c | 1,657$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.79 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Over | 40c | 980.13$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 61c | 844.31$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.78 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Under | 60c | 835.71$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 48c | 787.87$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.69 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Under | 58c | 259.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 78c | 230.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 54c | 122$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…9815backed Under | 54c | 111.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 91.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 22c | 86.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 56c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b728backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 78c | 48.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Over | 78c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…dd29backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 60c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 78c | 22.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.