Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41f153e0186747ccb201159f95caa09b16bca1cfc262c4e87fce439f19ef690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 39c | 11,859$4,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,233.94 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed07…886abacked Under | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,199.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 9,009$4,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,468.74 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 61c | 2,627$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.52 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 2,097$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.82 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 74c | 2,000$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.27 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 29c | 1,797$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.45 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9a…c308backed Over | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 599.26$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.2 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Over | 39c | 509.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 357.05$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 38c | 242.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.65 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 61c | 235$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Under | 61c | 170.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfd…ff86backed Under | 61c | 169.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 61c | 167.45$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 159.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 60c | 152.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 17c | 127.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 54c | 114$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 59c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 59c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 58c | 42.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…a076backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 63c | 30.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.