Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390ec831872fc1e4a3d6ac4366b086a2862a9a4c3990fc4a6716f9bb8207616e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Newcastle United Jets FC, Adelaide United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Adelaide United FC | 77c | 5,269$4,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.27 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle United Jets FC | 23c | 3,181$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.55 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Newcastle United Jets FC | 24c | 800$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Newcastle United Jets FC | 22c | 525$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Newcastle United Jets FC | 27c | 314.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Adelaide United FC | 70c | 260$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Newcastle United Jets FC | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…8e82backed Adelaide United FC | 73c | 159.26$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb0…c9f8backed Adelaide United FC | 73c | 155.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Adelaide United FC | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Adelaide United FC | 75c | 140$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 24c | 93.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 25c | 80.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 24c | 76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Adelaide United FC | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Newcastle United Jets FC | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-1.5)this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Newcastle United Jets FC won
- Spread: Newcastle United Jets FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.