South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bccdbc6f0bf339ff99083270145b993ce5c6b13c1a6ddaa07980dbd4ad22e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 36c | 1,428$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,263$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.44 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 1,066$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.83 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 489.24$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 25c | 246.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 64c | 214.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…130bbacked Over | 24c | 198.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 39c | 172.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 35c | 164.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…c93abacked Over | 34c | 121.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 64c | 97.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 28c | 72.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…d539backed Under | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 71cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 48.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 61c | 48.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 45c | 32.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 36c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…41ddbacked Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 61c | 21.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Over | 63c | 19.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 72c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: O/U 1.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: O/U 2.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Talleres: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.