TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over71c7,083$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under30c3,077$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.9143748.3%211 W · 226 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under29c2,970$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.333444%147 W · 187 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under41c2,045$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.4615140.4%61 W · 90 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under41c1,255$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.9747850.8%243 W · 235 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c95…8a0bbacked Over69c982.11$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.455100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over53c815.99$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.8598844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under48c729.75$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over56c633.95$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6613049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under31c597.08$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.0930954.7%169 W · 140 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78d…130bbacked Over68c516.63$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Under47c500.41$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked Over66c453.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.33366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Under43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Under51c390.66$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.872352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009550.5%48 W · 47 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over51c301.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed Over58c300$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over52c300$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Over64c273.78$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.782751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over68c219.97$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.917365.8%48 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under11c182.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+6.7wins+0.42per pick14cpaid+367.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Under46c180.62$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.851526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-45.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8293…aaeebacked Over49c141.86$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe29f…b2f0backed Under32c135.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under31c131.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3332453.1%172 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over47c129.98$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.893354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7bb…2753backed Under38c129.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over68c124.68$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Over70c124.05$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1f…eb43backed Over49c117.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.081855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under31c108.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9613540.7%55 W · 80 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under29c99.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.991566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Under34c91.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.183345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over52c90.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.348853.4%47 W · 41 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under30c88.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.588747.1%41 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5746…06cfbacked Under30c86.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24e…bf04backed Over70c85.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd41…5afebacked Over66c82.76$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+52.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d4…5c13backed Over72c77.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Under49c71.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over57c69.69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.74353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Over68c69.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.152065%13 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under29c67.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.472157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Under31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Under31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfe…9408backed Over51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+70.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde28…8d20backed Over71c56.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.341735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-46.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1610839.8%43 W · 65 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Over62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over51c47.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.48353%44 W · 39 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Over65c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.056147.5%29 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Under37c43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Over71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf916…6266backed Over67c37.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under31c35.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.063141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Over54c32.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b5…56abbacked Under32c31.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Over63c31.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.872236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Under32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Over65c31.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+541.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Under35c31.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…3df6backed Under41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Over62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0045…9007backed Over59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over52c28.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.734252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.573658.3%21 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Over71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Over70c28.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d08…3f86backed Under53c28.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.323938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.062334.8%8 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x68e7…0169backed Over71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Over56c18.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.122634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-41.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0e65…d1d3backed Under56c18.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…5760backed Over71c17.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Over71c15.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.531353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d3…7d51backed Over71c14.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.