Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc44f79769b26857ca64bc2030683c8cf6a648ca2f4757faf0ca9e976a35e3238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2fb…b9f0backed Over | 71c | 7,083$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 3,077$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.91 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 2,970$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.3 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 2,045$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.46 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 1,255$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.97 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…8a0bbacked Over | 69c | 982.11$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 815.99$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.85 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 48c | 729.75$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 633.95$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.66 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 597.08$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.09 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…130bbacked Over | 68c | 516.63$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 47c | 500.41$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 66c | 453.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Under | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 51c | 390.66$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 51c | 301.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 58c | 300$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 64c | 273.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 68c | 219.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 11c | 182.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 46c | 180.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 49c | 141.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 32c | 135.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 31c | 131.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 47c | 129.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 38c | 129.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over | 68c | 124.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 70c | 124.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 49c | 117.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 31c | 108.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 34c | 91.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 52c | 90.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.34 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 30c | 88.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked Under | 30c | 86.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…bf04backed Over | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 66c | 82.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Over | 72c | 77.67$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 49c | 71.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 57c | 69.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 68c | 69.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 29c | 67.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…9408backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 51c | 47.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…6266backed Over | 67c | 37.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 31c | 35.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Over | 54c | 32.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b5…56abbacked Under | 32c | 31.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 63c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Over | 65c | 31.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +541.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Under | 35c | 31.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…3df6backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Over | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 52c | 28.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Over | 70c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Under | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e7…0169backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 56c | 18.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Under | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75aa…5760backed Over | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 71c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d3…7d51backed Over | 71c | 14.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.