Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cede76998229fb9c1a1ebc21fb1c321f5a35db816083bb7de9106d47f93ed64

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $39,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74d0…de45backed Under	55c	6,416$3,503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,503.2	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Over	40c	4,190$1,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,513.99	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Over	53c	2,935$1,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,379.87	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over	47c	1,987$933 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,053.85	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	56c	1,520$845 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$844.85	130	49.2%64 W · 66 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0def…4ddbbacked Over	55c	1,500$825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.99	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc82b…4a75backed Under	1c	1,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	29c	974.34$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.34	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Under	49c	922.84$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c74…0d16backed Over	29c	902.15$263 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$638.96	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under	53c	881.38$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.13	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under	73c	871.96$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	57cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	52c	808.15$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	80	48.8%39 W · 41 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	52c	781.83$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.56	309	54.7%169 W · 140 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	65c	730.31$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.7	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	36c	703.64$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.73	86	25.6%22 W · 64 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa529…677ebacked Under	71c	695.65$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.58	17	64.7%11 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	71cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a48…e094backed Over	46c	652.17$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.17	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.66per pick	34cpaid	+241.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Under	38c	596.95$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.84	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5af4…183cbacked Over	46c	518.21$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.21	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	53c	377.36$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.25per pick	45cpaid	-60%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under	59c	352.27$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.12	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under	51c	339.98$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.07	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2e…5b64backed Over	40c	300$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+148.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7079…718dbacked Over	33c	299.99$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over	34c	295.76$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.76	81	29.6%24 W · 57 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over	28c	285.94$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.68	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Under	60c	263.33$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over	43c	231.36$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.55	151	40.4%61 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	60c	210.72$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.63	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	43c	197.82$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.77	198	49%97 W · 101 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under	63c	189.7$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Under	68c	176.01$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.58	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Over	33c	152.98$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.98	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under	52c	150.48$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.95	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	70cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Over	41c	150$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.5	58	53.4%31 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Over	31c	129.03$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.03	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under	53c	127.7$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.09	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.21per pick	49cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	32c	120.3$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.67	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+8.0wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Under	45c	115.56$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Under	53c	113.21$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed Under	73c	108$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.31	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	66cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Under	59c	103$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.77	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x988c…90c1backed Under	49c	102.87$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Under	55c	101.62$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.89	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed Over	26c	100$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+39%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	21c	97.11$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.72	72	54.2%39 W · 33 L	+9.2wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under	66c	96.44$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.65	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.4wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under	61c	82.57$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	68cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf931…516abacked Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Under	65c	76.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under	67c	64.02$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.09	135	40.7%55 W · 80 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	69c	60.5$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	107	57.9%62 W · 45 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6474…7ab8backed Over	44c	56.82$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.82	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under	57c	47$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.79	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62d…70c8backed Under	60c	46.42$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…a518backed Over	35c	46.28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.86	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	54cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Under	40c	45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	74c	41.24$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	57cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	74c	41.24$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under	56c	40.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	44c	40.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.68	466	44.8%209 W · 257 L	-23.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	71c	39.89$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under	54c	38.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x225f…5978backed Under	53c	37.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under	74c	36.66$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.13	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	38.8%19 W · 30 L	-9.7wins	-0.20per pick	59cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Under	74c	32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.68	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	68cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8390…3773backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9817…28bcbacked Over	34c	29.03$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.02	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	74c	27.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d2…6805backed Under	63c	26$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	71c	24.3$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	55c	22.42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.09	60	50%30 W · 30 L	-5.0wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5cf…a2c0backed Under	56c	17.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5this page
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event