Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3b661a319194e45c9f9ec9bc738d7c50c81aa4b58d9cb283902d0c85c21a32f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 843.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 80c | 470.58$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Under | 15c | 271.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 14c | 224.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 12c | 188.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 21c | 114.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 14c | 91.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 13c | 91.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 80c | 56.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +33%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.