Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67bafabf7a268d0166d89e6fe9ee67958b48d86a9490682ff6c5712be6e05972
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Adelaide United FC, Macarthur FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Adelaide United FC | 34c | 1,300$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Macarthur FC | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Macarthur FC | 72c | 446.25$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Macarthur FC | 72c | 373$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Macarthur FC | 66c | 200.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Adelaide United FC | 11c | 191.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Macarthur FC | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Adelaide United FC | 33c | 148.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Macarthur FC | 71c | 143.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Adelaide United FC | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Adelaide United FC | 10c | 110.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…b3b9backed Macarthur FC | 72c | 68.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Macarthur FC | 71c | 68.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Macarthur FC | 70c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Macarthur FC | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Macarthur FC | 70c | 36.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Adelaide United FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Macarthur FC | 67c | 29.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -9.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Macarthur FC | 68c | 25.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Macarthur FC | 80c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Macarthur FC | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Macarthur FC | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.