Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a71b3a8d774fd4552c417f8644996a64d2d1c12a4ff4f796d6d2f24767e7c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 29c | 1,139$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.3 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 835.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 71c | 739.41$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.43 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 37c | 535.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Under | 76c | 511.69$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Under | 73c | 299.96$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 5c | 297.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Over | 8c | 292.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +179.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 229.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 205.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 27c | 188.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 156.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Over | 18c | 143.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 73c | 140.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Under | 75c | 133.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…f2d6backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 29c | 133.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 126.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Over | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 77c | 121$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 23c | 121$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 70c | 100.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 74c | 95.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 65c | 76.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 67c | 74.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 68cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9054…c40abacked Under | 71c | 49.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Macarthur FC won
- Spread: Macarthur FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.