TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c5…8d45backed Over50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c6,176$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,829.113,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f12…70d4backed Under55c3,347$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.972650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over45c3,223$1,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.52548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over45c2,995$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.711428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under48c2,808$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.8964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under55c2,730$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.132,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under44c1,384$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.1743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c1,212$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.1848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over44c1,100$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4844641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…a96fbacked Under56c973.6$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under55c909$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over63c879.26$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.2944655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under67c730.1$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.551,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over45c536.69$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.513452.9%18 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+85.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under51c514.96$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.884445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over41c470.54$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.922951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over43c381.38$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over49c346.89$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9712635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over45c343.82$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.721154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc9…4df4backed Under57c341.82$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae2…6ca6backed Under52c327.29$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over44c294$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8233047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over72c276.3$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9416464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under48c272.31$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.971,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under56c237$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.285145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under50c230.86$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4314652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d25…5529backed Under36c227.04$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Over43c211$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.568224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8796…c744backed Over36c205$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.82425%6 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over67c197.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4217852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Over42c196.68$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8582…959fbacked Over61c160.1$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over45c152.39$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0333938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under55c151.05$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9726445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Under35c132.4$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.064641.3%19 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd876…4c8bbacked Over9c115.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-76.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under41c112.58$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2410549.5%52 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over18c111.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under72c110.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3212560.8%76 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd53c…5194backed Over19c109.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-40.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.355158.8%30 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc2af…3880backed Over49c104.52$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.663033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under57c102.33$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4853140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under55c97.27$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.779850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff89…9c06backed Over45c86.69$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.011450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc92d…9691backed Over61c85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under53c61.12$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Under55c61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.453043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c9…a454backed Under57c59.82$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.724042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Over50c58$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over60c56.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1612069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x619e…0149backed Under27c56.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+77.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under55c55.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0116846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Over45c55.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.993342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under44c52.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.361457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under50c48.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.256245.2%28 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under52c43.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6520645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over46c42.07$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3520753.6%111 W · 96 L+22.3wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over42c40.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2831…e84dbacked Over70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over71c35.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9239558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.475450%27 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4148…4397backed Over56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.472356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over43c31.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.533852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf479…0fe3backed Over49c29.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f96…e7f0backed Under67c29.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+64.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under57c28.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3111159.5%66 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under56c27.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.246855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a98…3f93backed Over55c26.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under50c26.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1956…1ef8backed Under56c26.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.471553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa209…ffbebacked Over80c24.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over54c24.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb82b…bb76backed Over51c22.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.572213.6%3 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under57c22.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.511447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cf…0f46backed Over47c21.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.343336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc19d…aea3backed Over49c21.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed Over61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a63…fe88backed Over70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bfe…0741backed Under58c19.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.263243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x033c…b4afbacked Under55c18.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.241770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under63c16.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.152040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.