Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf92e05a8f1df103ee00afd922314d7718f6a6bbb0bb588687ec4c4288ae32958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.08 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hamburger SV | 55c | 1,439$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.05 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hamburger SV | 70c | 709.99$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 31c | 278.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 34c | 213.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…04cbbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 30c | 206.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Hamburger SV | 66c | 176.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 33c | 148.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 36c | 98.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 32c | 44.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 38.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Hamburger SV | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Hamburger SV | 64c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hamburger SV | 66c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.