Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71a943d12e81ef1d290e0e96fe88a0985593f8b07cd9db53c6b1268a0bc21a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 48c | 10,409$4,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,996.1 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 8,115$4,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,791.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 1,769$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 1,616$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.59 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…a96fbacked Under | 62c | 977.2$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 65c | 806.99$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.06 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 40c | 592.72$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 44c | 480.96$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 33c | 437.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 370.31$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 52c | 299.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.41 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 257.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 23c | 245.15$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 205.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 197.69$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 23c | 158.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…8f57backed Under | 77c | 157.54$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 105.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed Over | 48c | 103.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Over | 27c | 77.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 57c | 75.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 64.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 75c | 49.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 54c | 45.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 58c | 41.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 52c | 33.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Over | 34c | 32.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…f56fbacked Under | 42c | 30.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Under | 60c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 58c | 23.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.