Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98506c1cecde0a9cec569fb312bacbd5798d9bbc289c61ea6538a59bc3b8d234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 65c | 1,734$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 36c | 1,284$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 34c | 1,158$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.47 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 66c | 1,027$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.99 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Yes | 67c | 1,011$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.08 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 37c | 705.84$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.86 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 608.89$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 30c | 451.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.21 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 34c | 423.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 36c | 288.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 64c | 285.3$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 36c | 197$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 35c | 193.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Yes | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 64c | 163.09$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Yes | 65c | 150.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 65c | 149.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 35c | 148.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…79ddbacked Yes | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Yes | 65c | 125.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…4a85backed Yes | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Yes | 63c | 99.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 34c | 91.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 65c | 90.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 34c | 74.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 35c | 67.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked No | 36c | 53.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…b813backed Yes | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 63c | 44.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 35c | 29.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…b092backed Yes | 66c | 24.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.