Bundesliga · resolved market
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x583e567264d7e03336288eef4e416959ef4cbd14a63bd0aeb2de2395d19165fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 64c | 8,925$5,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.56 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 7,279$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 36c | 2,656$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.27 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 1,486$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Over | 65c | 977.68$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.19 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 44c | 954.48$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 67c | 731.49$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 34c | 668.91$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.77 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 35c | 588.13$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 26c | 543$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 67c | 490.1$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 33c | 413.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 35c | 359.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 33c | 358.39$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 69c | 345.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 69c | 317.39$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 280.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.27 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 259.25$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 208.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 66c | 195.92$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 33c | 186.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 64c | 178.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 166.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Over | 65c | 156.64$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 65c | 143.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x688c…2482backed Under | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 67c | 130.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 34c | 116.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 12c | 101.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 60c | 98.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 67c | 90.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 36c | 88.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…8fbfbacked Over | 67c | 87.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed Over | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Over | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 70.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…c6b1backed Over | 66c | 62.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 58.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 29c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 46.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 33c | 46.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 31c | 45.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 34c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 71c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 36.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…e722backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 67c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 66c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e73…27a3backed Over | 66c | 29.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 37c | 28.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 67c | 24.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Over | 67c | 23.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 75c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 67c | 18.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.