Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d138899fda8af3ead7b58acb797f3b3903bd6472a91f83f136a92bfa13ed605

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,922 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	49c	8,332$4,051 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,281.21	988	44.4%439 W · 549 L	-11.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	47c	8,004$3,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,761.86	120	55%66 W · 54 L	+12.6wins	+0.11per pick	44cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	53c	3,601$1,910 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,691.44	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	55c	2,046$1,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911.83	478	50.8%243 W · 235 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	53c	2,010$1,067 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$943.65	466	44.8%209 W · 257 L	-23.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5440…edd4backed Over	78c	1,746$1,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.8	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.19per pick	53cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over	48c	1,455$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.84	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3242…0e0bbacked Over	46c	1,200$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.94	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Over	45c	1,122$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.36per pick	50cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Over	46c	1,034$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.64	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8374…6768backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Under	44c	716.03$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$402.69	305	36.1%110 W · 195 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7cd…0888backed Over	40c	699.99$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under	50c	537.1$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.55	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over	49c	396.33$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over	54c	372.45$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	62c	330.13$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.45	309	54.7%169 W · 140 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Over	49c	283.18$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.76	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Under	38c	280$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.6	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	62c	266.43$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.15	50	48%24 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over	63c	254.83$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-7.3wins	-0.15per pick	34cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Over	12c	247.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7a84…0e54backed Over	43c	234.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.39	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	47c	232.56$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.29	334	44%147 W · 187 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over	47c	214.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Over	27c	200$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	41c	198.06$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.82	349	37.8%132 W · 217 L	-13.0wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4215…f03abacked Over	36c	169$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.96	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under	69c	155$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.05	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	70cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	46c	147.23$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.71	235	51.5%121 W · 114 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb18c…df51backed Over	61c	139.48$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.61per pick	61cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f85…87d5backed Under	54c	136.41$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.45	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-3.9wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x70b2…fb61backed Over	44c	122.73$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	44c	120$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-4.1wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d44…2f97backed Over	49c	113.31$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.52	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	78	33.3%26 W · 52 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Over	61c	98.36$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over	51c	94.84$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.29	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under	54c	94.44$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.44	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af3…fbe3backed Over	49c	92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed Over	46c	86.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c5…0d72backed Under	52c	81.92$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.32	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over	50c	80.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	27.7%23 W · 60 L	-10.2wins	-0.12per pick	40cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	36c	79.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over	33c	77.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	65	63.1%41 W · 24 L	+7.6wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	69	58%40 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over	40c	74.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.61	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-4.0wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under	53c	69.99$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.82	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	47c	66.48$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.25	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over	36c	65$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	40%18 W · 27 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	36c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	83	61.4%51 W · 32 L	+10.4wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over	36c	60$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over	48c	59.99$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.49	37	54.1%20 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	49c	57.34$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	47c	50.24$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.61	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+15%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0040…9eb8backed Over	41c	48.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-6.2wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	42c	42.93$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	108	39.8%43 W · 65 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under	53c	40.92$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.09	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	59cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	49c	40.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acf…b718backed Over	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	55c	40.4$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.3	324	53.1%172 W · 152 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Over	50c	40.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over	32c	37.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	74	25.7%19 W · 55 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over	47c	34.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+24%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed Under	55c	33.12$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.9	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0d7…0ed9backed Over	46c	32.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under	55c	31.42$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.14	64	60.9%39 W · 25 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Under	56c	31.25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.75	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa083…9c95backed Under	57c	30.66$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Over	39c	28.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Under	80c	27.5$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.5	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-37%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x320f…1420backed Under	53c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.69	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Under	53c	24.04$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.3	25	64%16 W · 9 L	+5.1wins	+0.20per pick	44cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xed6a…841ebacked Under	54c	23.33$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.79	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae39…c212backed Over	46c	21.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	46c	21.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	50cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9154…8f2dbacked Over	53c	20.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bd…6504backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x338f…c6dabacked Under	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4af8…4711backed Under	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Under	51c	19.76$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5this page
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event