Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1458373a96a0e924f22a36f1c4cbccb2e4ed0833d5575bc5801a8db3fe9cebaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 33c | 2,294$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.4 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 71c | 1,727$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 960.73$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.92 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 856.36$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.14 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 596.63$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Under | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 60c | 401$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 372.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 79c | 318.9$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 40c | 297.3$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Over | 65c | 237.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 15c | 237.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Over | 76c | 236.55$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 27c | 208.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7018…290abacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Under | 38c | 199.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Under | 24c | 167.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 62c | 160.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 158.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 70c | 143.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b0…07bfbacked Under | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 55c | 109.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 69c | 108.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 87.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 40c | 68.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Over | 71c | 40.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 68c | 33.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 33c | 31.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 67c | 25.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 76c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Over | 68c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.