Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0d74e769b56bc9f5f636902973c73290b414582313addd05a7a254d5f1e0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 73c | 3,929$2,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.89 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 26c | 3,617$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…8bdebacked Over | 38c | 2,310$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c78…0f7bbacked Under | 77c | 1,340$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,254$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.15 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…dc6bbacked Under | 44c | 881.28$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 753.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Under | 44c | 668.37$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.31 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 607.73$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.61 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 499.06$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.45 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 56c | 413.56$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 50c | 399.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 74c | 343$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…6439backed Over | 28c | 318$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 74c | 294$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Under | 70c | 214.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 47c | 214.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 26c | 189$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 29c | 164$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 41c | 151.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 34c | 147.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 75c | 146.8$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 13c | 145.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 144.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 140.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed Under | 73c | 117$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 51c | 105.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 102.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 26c | 100.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 52c | 96.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 51c | 96.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Over | 27c | 93.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked Under | 69c | 83.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 30c | 82.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 21c | 77.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 22c | 74.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 72c | 69.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 29c | 68.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 72c | 67.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…4f3fbacked Over | 16c | 65.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 31c | 64.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…7654backed Under | 43c | 57.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Over | 27c | 52.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Over | 29c | 49.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 69c | 45.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 72c | 34.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 73c | 31.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…b23cbacked Over | 38c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 67c | 16.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 75c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Adelaide United FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.