TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Warriors vs. Spurs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Spurs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,773,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,803,905

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,773,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,957 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3151…0977backed Warriors65c234,475$151,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,954.0719249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs25c60,000$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,80038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors59c55,515$32,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,795.515,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5a…7e43backed Spurs42c54,704$22,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,963.372941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Warriors39c54,572$21,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,200.081,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Warriors39c53,351$20,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,512.0712740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Spurs50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0005646.4%26 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Spurs62c50,000$30,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,769.8551350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Warriors40c49,296$19,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,807.313237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Spurs61c43,413$26,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,481.838744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Spurs59c40,000$23,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,6006253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Warriors39c38,470$15,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,466.72626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors40c36,980$14,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,031.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Spurs61c30,443$18,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,645.5116942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90c…9a6abacked Warriors26c29,016$7,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,420.033234.4%11 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Spurs50c27,239$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,749.992466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Spurs60c25,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00020253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Spurs0c22,967$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9725016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Spurs61c20,000$12,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,20012334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Spurs1c16,833$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Spurs62c16,186$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Warriors36c16,130$5,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,321.562365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Warriors38c15,955$6,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,812.3274748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Spurs64c15,700$10,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,047.852060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors39c15,619$6,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,527.2987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Spurs65c15,395$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Spurs34c15,213$5,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,243.271,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x575a…bba6backed Spurs61c15,082$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,20012529.6%37 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Warriors59c14,888$8,804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,084.0926038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Warriors38c14,726$5,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,183.3172450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors44c13,955$6,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,798.258,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors38c13,884$5,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,559.6369852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…b1d6backed Spurs80c13,721$10,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,942.421957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Spurs35c10,906$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,830.3519136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Spurs60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0004456.8%25 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Spurs63c9,667$6,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,050.452,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fdd…5feabacked Spurs52c9,666$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors59c9,580$5,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,919.93,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeaa…6732backed Spurs62c8,800$5,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,455.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Spurs54c8,330$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,471.1516446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Spurs30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Warriors63c7,750$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.9119388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x400f…e712backed Spurs37c7,626$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6775…17efbacked Spurs58c7,562$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,407.352650%13 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Warriors40c7,500$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Warriors44c7,432$3,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.3385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Spurs63c6,551$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150.3136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Spurs63c6,540$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.8112843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Spurs35c6,428$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.5381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Warriors41c6,100$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.768251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Spurs1c5,575$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.752,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Spurs34c5,575$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.7927041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Warriors35c5,555$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.7576249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Warriors39c5,500$2,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,354.9447748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Spurs59c5,117$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.9218142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Spurs64c5,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Warriors36c4,861$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,111.113432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Spurs10c4,814$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.821,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Spurs64c4,693$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Spurs64c4,688$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4169…512cbacked Spurs61c4,433$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.911330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors37c4,367$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,755.699,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors69c4,177$2,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.671,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4987…804bbacked Spurs51c4,175$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.773148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Warriors35c4,173$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.482,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Warriors53c4,083$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.012,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors40c4,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Spurs60c4,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4006636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Spurs56c4,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2504052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Spurs0c3,898$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.558820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e06…1b59backed Spurs68c3,800$2,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,590.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Spurs60c3,600$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb99…5d0fbacked Spurs64c3,580$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,298.27143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…4421backed Spurs33c3,568$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.291050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Warriors39c3,500$1,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,13518047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9b…7e32backed Warriors38c3,400$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,108333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Spurs31c3,213$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00048448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x686b…7d1cbacked Spurs22c3,186$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7002520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Spurs26c3,143$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80447535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Warriors37c3,124$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.0723135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2633…8816backed Warriors29c3,065$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,175.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Spurs36c3,045$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.0238151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Warriors37c3,030$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,908.2846342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Spurs63c3,015$1,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.351753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Spurs60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8004868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Spurs41c3,000$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.9920057%114 W · 86 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Warriors49c2,993$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.31,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Warriors35c2,970$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.8195049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Spurs63c2,881$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.7844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614b…bee6backed Spurs43c2,809$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Spurs61c2,789$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7006145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Warriors37c2,705$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.1541553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Warriors39c2,686$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.355850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x231c…7e0bbacked Warriors38c2,630$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb3…34ccbacked Spurs61c2,623$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ee…469cbacked Spurs72c2,600$1,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,868850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb900…fe44backed Warriors38c2,600$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.981361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Warriors36c2,600$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.9424330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe89e…bb74backed Spurs60c2,509$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Spurs14c2,500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.157447.3%35 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.