NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28610eb310539af79d1dc40d1cd0e5f53f3c740e960f1e42df9079bce0ba05a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 54c | 420$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 402.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 342.96$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…5813backed Over | 49c | 211.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 181.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…6d37backed Under | 40c | 180$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…3975backed Over | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…8ac9backed Over | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 103.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 42c | 90.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…f858backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…7a20backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ef…186bbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SpursWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.