TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Spurs (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Spurs, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,321
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,321 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43d4…13a2backed Warriors51c33,000$16,809 inWon+$16,19112740.2%51 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Spurs49c30,300$14,847 inLost-$14,8476253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors50c7,000$3,500 inWon+$3,5001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Spurs50c3,776$1,888 inLost-$1,888.182442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inLost-$1,50025945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Spurs50c3,000$1,500 inLost-$1,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Spurs49c2,329$1,141 inLost-$1,141.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Warriors51c1,961$1,000 inWon+$960.782657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Warriors49c1,269$622 inWon+$6471,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Spurs51c980.39$500 inLost-$50028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors50c731$366 inWon+$365.56,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Spurs49c550.98$270 inLost-$269.9859347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors50c456$228 inWon+$22869852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Warriors51c368.63$188 inWon+$180.6313644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Spurs50c282$141 inLost-$14185347.9%409 W · 444 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951f…e430backed Spurs51c196.08$100 inLost-$10023652.5%124 W · 112 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Spurs50c100$50 inLost-$5032853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…32c2backed Spurs50c100$50 inLost-$507653.9%41 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Warriors50c91.2$46 inWon+$45.62,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Spurs50c60$30 inLost-$308450%42 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Spurs51c49.02$25 inLost-$2530454.9%167 W · 137 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eb0…8826backed Spurs51c47.06$24 inLost-$2411853.4%63 W · 55 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x426f…e76bbacked Spurs50c40$20 inLost-$2017644.9%79 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaba…ba7cbacked Spurs51c29.41$15 inLost-$153237.5%12 W · 20 L-6.0wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2f1d…6519backed Spurs50c20$10 inLost-$101643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.