NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3929b075001841dff42c7c02d3f8fb69ad3dc1a1501d9b4fd5956a9c23ae7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Spurs, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Warriors | 52c | 22,410$11,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,756.86 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Spurs | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 48c | 11,187$5,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,370 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Warriors | 51c | 7,920$4,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.8 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Warriors | 51c | 2,731$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.39 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 66c | 2,091$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Spurs | 36c | 2,004$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.57 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Spurs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 51c | 1,307$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.29 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 51c | 1,180$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Spurs | 48c | 1,135$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.73 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Spurs | 46c | 879.82$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs | 49c | 861$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.89 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Spurs | 49c | 861$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.89 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 51c | 802.34$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.15 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Spurs | 46c | 787$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.02 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Warriors | 55c | 781.13$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.87 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Spurs | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Warriors | 55c | 605.45$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.45 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Warriors | 53c | 564.36$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.45 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Warriors | 50c | 330$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Spurs | 46c | 329.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Spurs | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Warriors | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 54c | 284$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…0fc2backed Spurs | 49c | 250.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Spurs | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Spurs | 48c | 211.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Spurs | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc072…9810backed Spurs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Warriors | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Warriors | 47c | 176.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Warriors | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Warriors | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d90…1310backed Warriors | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 152 | 74.3%113 W · 39 L | +22.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Spurs | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Spurs | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Warriors | 54c | 91.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…5822backed Warriors | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 54c | 85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…602cbacked Spurs | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spurs | 49c | 70.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Spurs | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Spurs | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Warriors | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Spurs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Spurs | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Spurs | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Spurs | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Spurs | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Warriors | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Spurs | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Spurs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Warriors | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Spurs | 48c | 32.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Spurs | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…0a0fbacked Spurs | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Spurs | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 50c | 26.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…c067backed Spurs | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Warriors | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Warriors | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Warriors | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…af5dbacked Spurs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Warriors | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. SpursWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 230.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Spurs: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.