Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58f2249c5ee093d60fae7609cf4d1e2dc5c36b7893f107c914c88443b9652d1e

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $46,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,814 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x821d…cf16backed Under	62c	6,222$3,865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,357.35	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	50c	5,265$2,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,632.23	750	56.5%424 W · 326 L	+44.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…04fabacked Over	42c	4,809$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab8…1b4abacked Under	50c	4,694$2,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,345.77	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	55c	4,149$2,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,854.25	1,190	32.5%387 W · 803 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	25c	2,151$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.08	4,874	41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over	50c	1,980$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	34c	1,906$649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.55	1,012	36%364 W · 648 L	-20.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	57c	1,512$865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$646.8	583	48.5%283 W · 300 L	+21.3wins	+0.04per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	53c	1,378$728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650.01	1,786	34.9%623 W · 1,163 L	-34.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	26c	1,194$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.55	1,424	44.3%631 W · 793 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	28c	1,026$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$736.12	1,358	48.3%656 W · 702 L	-3.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	75c	952$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.45	219	47%103 W · 116 L	+7.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Under	59c	803.39$474 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.39	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	40c	742.16$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.75	660	32.9%217 W · 443 L	-32.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x482a…c85dbacked Under	80c	487.8$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe398…4ce5backed Under	70c	439.69$306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.66	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	72cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	32c	388.91$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.13	762	41.9%319 W · 443 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	44c	340.91$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	73	32.9%24 W · 49 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb0…5390backed Over	45c	340$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	74c	337$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.38	877	48.2%423 W · 454 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afa…2babbacked Over	73c	300$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	68cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5af3…1534backed Over	69c	289.86$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Over	71c	282.59$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	64cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	58c	204.01$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.27	1,943	42.5%826 W · 1,117 L	-41.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over	45c	199.78$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.75	98	37.8%37 W · 61 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0f…1366backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+143.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x614e…a93bbacked Over	51c	180.75$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f8…6f42backed Over	48c	145.83$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	+2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa894…2830backed Over	75c	145.04$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.78	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	72c	138.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	202	54.5%110 W · 92 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Over	75c	133.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	50c	125.67$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.2	643	47.7%307 W · 336 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8325…0ac8backed Over	40c	121.08$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over	45c	115.49$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	141	55.3%78 W · 63 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Over	79c	111.16$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.82	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	26c	107.07$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.44	1,305	42.4%553 W · 752 L	-28.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5767…490ebacked Over	74c	105.12$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.47	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over	46c	104.35$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	100	61%61 W · 39 L	+12.8wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	51c	95$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.36	193	51.8%100 W · 93 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	20c	93.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.33	851	52.9%450 W · 401 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Under	27c	82.86$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.76	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	30c	80$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	561	55.1%309 W · 252 L	+9.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa63b…7757backed Over	63c	79.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	25c	76.1$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.07	2,606	47.7%1,242 W · 1,364 L	+43.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3303…9895backed Under	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4490…e3babacked Over	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Over	76c	70.36$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	69	40.6%28 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under	30c	70.09$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.37	121	48.8%59 W · 62 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Over	72c	69.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	136	47.1%64 W · 72 L	-15.4wins	-0.11per pick	58cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under	20c	68.75$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	89	57.3%51 W · 38 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc8e…944ebacked Over	75c	66.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	-4.2wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over	51c	61.94$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Over	51c	61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8a…20d6backed Over	69c	60.54$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Over	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Under	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	214	38.8%83 W · 131 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	25c	50$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	368	51.4%189 W · 179 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Over	75c	50$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	72cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9030…cf12backed Over	68c	49.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1ea…18e7backed Over	51c	49.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over	41c	47.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Under	50c	47.18$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.37	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd7…2acdbacked Under	55c	45.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.71	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.6wins	+0.53per pick	47cpaid	+115%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f65…ec56backed Over	72c	40.68$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	65cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under	27c	40.11$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-6.8wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-28%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e1b…c38fbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under	31c	37.47$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	146	49.3%72 W · 74 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d39…ba51backed Over	79c	36.79$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	76cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d0d…57dabacked Over	75c	32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.34per pick	67cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3d…9351backed Over	80c	31.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdd6…7ff5backed Over	80c	31.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	74c	29$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	1,707	52.8%902 W · 805 L	+31.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a8…5604backed Over	45c	28.89$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over	70c	28.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	70	65.7%46 W · 24 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81a7…7042backed Over	37c	27.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	46	65.2%30 W · 16 L	+5.7wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under	46c	26.09$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.09	102	37.3%38 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under	80c	25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	199	42.2%84 W · 115 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Under	60c	21.52$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-44%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…c208backed Over	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe16f…a33fbacked Over	63c	18.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.65per pick	65cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	79c	16.87$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	347	39.2%136 W · 211 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…b200backed Over	68c	15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	65cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5this page
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 2.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 0.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 1.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 0.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Luton Town FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event