Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5d2b4889c7a14774cd02623f147a36e8b1176edec2eb373ec6d8fc19bd5d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 53c | 4,229$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…1eeebacked Over | 48c | 3,720$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Over | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.97 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 54c | 1,774$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.68 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 230$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 1,821 | 34.6%630 W · 1,191 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 40c | 164.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 130.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 1,713 | 52.8%905 W · 808 L | +31.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 51c | 70.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 143 | 21.7%31 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 55c | 53.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +10.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Luton Town FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.