Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b519d833e629c622b81a474b61d9b6f54c34a626ab0c13293f015eaa61bfbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 58c | 6,571$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.15 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 3,118$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.13 | 4,892 | 41.5%2,028 W · 2,864 L | +25.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 2,611$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.97 | 1,328 | 42.4%563 W · 765 L | -29.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 1,869$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.32 | 1,218 | 32.2%392 W · 826 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 43c | 1,680$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.39 | 859 | 52.7%453 W · 406 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 39c | 1,046$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.02 | 749 | 50.7%380 W · 369 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 4c | 984.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 41c | 977.92$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.96 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 814.69$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 1,821 | 34.6%630 W · 1,191 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 52c | 765.84$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.05 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Under | 49c | 756.84$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Under | 41c | 718.95$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afa…2babbacked Over | 59c | 684.54$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 47c | 666.89$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.76 | 225 | 37.8%85 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…c20ebacked Over | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 41c | 557.02$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.12 | 1,028 | 36.2%372 W · 656 L | -19.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 6c | 531.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 12c | 404.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 601 | 47.8%287 W · 314 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f90…7f51backed Over | 56c | 381$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 349.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 689 | 32.9%227 W · 462 L | -32.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…46c3backed Under | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 6c | 230.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 772 | 41.6%321 W · 451 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 23c | 226.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 60c | 214.28$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…aa98backed Over | 54c | 213.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f0…85a6backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…aebebacked Under | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 49c | 199.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…adadbacked Over | 62c | 195.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…9ac7backed Over | 52c | 192.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 428 | 40.4%173 W · 255 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 46c | 173.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Over | 52c | 140.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -10.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 59c | 139.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 134.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 657 | 44.6%293 W · 364 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab8…1b4abacked Over | 20c | 127.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Under | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 53c | 107.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 685 | 39.9%273 W · 412 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 44c | 91.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 89.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 1,950 | 42.5%828 W · 1,122 L | -42.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…d2ffbacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 53c | 67.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 376 | 38.3%144 W · 232 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…05c8backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 48c | 59.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 369 | 51.2%189 W · 180 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 58c | 51.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 42c | 48.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 55c | 45.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 43.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 43.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,383 | 48.3%668 W · 715 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…dad3backed Over | 51c | 42.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 42.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,713 | 52.8%905 W · 808 L | +31.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Over | 55c | 41.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b8…5a46backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 51c | 38.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 45c | 35.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…b0c4backed Over | 58c | 32.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…755ebacked Over | 60c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…93bebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 66c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…1586backed Over | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Over | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Chelsea FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: Luton Town FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Luton Town FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.