TailMyPicks

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Champions League · resolved market

NK Celje vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ŠK Slovan Bratislavaof NK Celje, ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava56c12,081$6,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,283.541,54340.1%618 W · 925 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6340…e272backed NK Celje55c10,072$5,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,496.67475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+71.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x075d…58c1backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava51c9,594$4,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,701.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…c236backed NK Celje37c4,472$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,637.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava47c3,811$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.5166446.2%307 W · 357 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked NK Celje52c3,520$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+109.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b62…5cc8backed NK Celje19c3,000$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.131346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked NK Celje53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.984447.7%21 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed NK Celje55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed NK Celje50c1,726$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.7445452%236 W · 218 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava49c1,541$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…f983backed NK Celje5c1,397$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.73728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+311.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava48c1,259$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.0815741.4%65 W · 92 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa9…09fabacked NK Celje3c1,250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c1,248$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.3527247.1%128 W · 144 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava77c1,184$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4111449.1%56 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava80c1,120$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.3313545.9%62 W · 73 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked NK Celje55c1,076$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.754247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava47c1,027$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.435944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb454…a98cbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e72…634dbacked NK Celje32c938.98$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89e…6a30backed NK Celje52c899.98$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c776.05$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.8334943.3%151 W · 198 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed NK Celje47c703.35$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33026743.8%117 W · 150 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed NK Celje55c680$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3742360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa700…102bbacked NK Celje2c651.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.632119%4 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb0…5390backed NK Celje16c630$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…95a9backed NK Celje52c606$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava73c567.92$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.262347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked NK Celje28c550.42$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9239849.2%196 W · 202 L+19.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed NK Celje49c511.08$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.2152646.8%246 W · 280 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava70c400.24$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8661437.5%230 W · 384 L-27.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed NK Celje52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4a…3da9backed NK Celje21c398.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4613…33b4backed NK Celje51c378$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876f…bbb9backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c368.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3a0…b873backed NK Celje56c358.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed NK Celje5c350$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1618149.2%89 W · 92 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…bab9backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava50c305$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.423844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+49.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed NK Celje15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava47c297.87$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.876740.3%27 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b2…34b5backed NK Celje58c289.69$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked NK Celje40c278.22$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+5,423.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88ff…5102backed NK Celje17c273.53$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava69c228.02$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.429348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2728840.3%116 W · 172 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava44c216.81$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9138953.7%209 W · 180 L+21.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6728…a070backed NK Celje19c210.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb348…776fbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.331816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-44%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.33933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeca…a1b7backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.331435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa458…2306backed NK Celje31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe092…d209backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava49c199.98$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.992250%11 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2a…adfcbacked NK Celje51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd62…4e9abacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcda7…d089backed NK Celje11c182.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked NK Celje10c182$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.848741.4%36 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc135…d871backed NK Celje60c161.77$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4523…0be0backed NK Celje28c159.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455048%24 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c157.18$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.116035.6%57 W · 103 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava49c154.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.499839.8%39 W · 59 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava51c150.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.291758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed NK Celje14c143.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.455937.3%22 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava67c142.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.432437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+162.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c135.05$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.0536942.5%157 W · 212 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.662653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava50c113$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce8…c1f1backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed NK Celje55c109.34$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.1431656.6%179 W · 137 L+13.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c105.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc3…1bb7backed NK Celje56c105.32$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb2…b26cbacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89c1…6790backed NK Celje19c100.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca05…ff07backed NK Celje51c98.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked NK Celje26c93.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.679745.4%44 W · 53 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b40…e937backed NK Celje55c92.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed NK Celje13c91.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5115846.8%74 W · 84 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f57…f8c5backed NK Celje56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.121747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853e…f16abacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.891968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+45.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde5…74d2backed NK Celje18c81.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed NK Celje53c75.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.572245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed NK Celje53c74.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.744240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c74.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.033956.4%22 W · 17 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+61.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3648…9cf7backed NK Celje18c72.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…40c5backed NK Celje50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d0…8dadbacked NK Celje36c59.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.891861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c59.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.816645.5%30 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf8…5e31backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c56.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.252147.6%10 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2fa…8755backed NK Celje56c53.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x971f…fbc8backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.632352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava45c50.59$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.821866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+70.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked NK Celje55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4155…fa41backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.54278.6%33 W · 9 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+42.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed NK Celje57c44.75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked NK Celje52c42.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+74.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed ŠK Slovan Bratislava47c41.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8eb…0acbbacked NK Celje52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204854.2%26 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.