La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb35892c60f0109956074e48f132fbafd804c971d3e7fec50ce5594371aabbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 960.07$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.66 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.86 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 452.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 424.24$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.24 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Over | 43c | 233.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 206.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…acb7backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 199.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c7…c8e5backed Over | 48c | 163.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 27c | 126.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 115.44$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 48c | 101.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba37…dedcbacked Over | 48c | 97.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 61c | 96.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 71.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 74c | 66.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Under | 52c | 61.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3f…0513backed Over | 50c | 61.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 29c | 56.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 46c | 49.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 35.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…35a6backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 78c | 19.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 117 | 69.2%81 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Málaga CF (-2.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)Málaga CF won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.