Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb12f2743fc2d33e4dc873babb06bf1dc783ca2511b73de64e26ce8a6115ca870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 73c | 2,170$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.75 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 30c | 1,005$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.63 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 974.92$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.48 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 32c | 967.14$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.55 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 27c | 935.59$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.82 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 30c | 843.98$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.19 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 66c | 646$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Over | 6c | 636.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +198.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 14c | 620.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 595.17$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 27c | 577.93$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Under | 56c | 534.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.28 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed Under | 53c | 495.89$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Over | 26c | 446.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 273.68$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 66c | 185$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 177.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 31c | 162.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Under | 52c | 159.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 19c | 146.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 35c | 106.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 76c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 42c | 86.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 43c | 85.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 78c | 68.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 61.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed Under | 74c | 47.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 43c | 45.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 45.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…4f29backed Under | 66c | 44.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 77c | 43.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…2a97backed Over | 32c | 38.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 35.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 33c | 33.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 41c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Under | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…9603backed Under | 60c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x819b…6a57backed Under | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 75c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 74c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 73c | 16.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.