TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Australian A League · resolved market

Adelaide United FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Australian A League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Under73c2,170$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.7511055.5%61 W · 49 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over30c1,005$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.634818.8%9 W · 39 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-43.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under76c974.92$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4830954.7%169 W · 140 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Over32c967.14$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.551833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42d…b35cbacked Over27c935.59$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.822740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over30c843.98$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.195925.4%15 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under66c646$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21922652.7%119 W · 107 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a2…1d43backed Over6c636.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.571118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+198.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over14c620.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.121050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+74.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under71c595.17$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9898844.4%439 W · 549 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Over27c577.93$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Under56c534.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.288139.5%32 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c1…32f7backed Under53c495.89$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Over26c446.41$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over26c400$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1044233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.0wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Under77c273.68$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.087162%44 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.58625.6%22 W · 64 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under66c185$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.911858.5%69 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over40c177.77$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9447850.8%243 W · 235 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over31c162.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb1…984ebacked Under52c159.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.793268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over19c146.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.533754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over35c106.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3224732.4%80 W · 167 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under76c89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.622748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over42c86.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.414837.5%18 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over43c85.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.774946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over24c84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.163330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308361.4%51 W · 32 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+27.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under70c76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.94238.1%16 W · 26 L-7.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-35.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under78c68.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.294454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over46c61.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.426253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa87b…968bbacked Over27c59.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167425.7%19 W · 55 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510839.8%43 W · 65 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25c0…c187backed Under74c47.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over43c45.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.586563.1%41 W · 24 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under74c45.65$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1232453.1%172 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c6…4f29backed Under66c44.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed Under77c43.27$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.956080%48 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…2a97backed Over32c38.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under74c35.01$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.266162.3%38 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb089…a271backed Over33c33.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.913938.5%15 W · 24 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over41c32.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5419849%97 W · 101 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Under65c30.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7b2…9603backed Under60c24.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x819b…6a57backed Under75c19.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.972152.4%11 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick69cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under69c19.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.933444%147 W · 187 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under75c16.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.073953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under74c16.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.173046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under73c16.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3214755.1%81 W · 66 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.